Among others, the probability analysis approach has difficulty in deciding objective probability, and thus it is necessary to obtain subjective probability through expert empirical prediction, modify it by the bayesian formula and get a posteriori probability, and substitute it for objective probability in risk measurement and risk premium calculation 其中,概率分析方法在應(yīng)用中就存在客觀概率不易確定的難點(diǎn)問(wèn)題,因此需用專家經(jīng)驗(yàn)預(yù)測(cè)法得到主觀概率后,利用貝葉斯公式加以修正并獲得后驗(yàn)概率,再用后驗(yàn)概率代替客觀概率進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益的計(jì)算。
Among others, the probability analysis approach has difficulty in deciding objective probability, and thus it is necessary to obtain subjective probability through expert empirical prediction, modify it by the bayesian formula and get a posteriori probability, and substitute it for objective probability in risk measurement and risk premium calculation 其中,概率分析方法在應(yīng)用中就存在客觀概率不易確定的難點(diǎn)問(wèn)題,因此需用專家經(jīng)驗(yàn)預(yù)測(cè)法得到主觀概率后,利用貝葉斯公式加以修正并獲得后驗(yàn)概率,再用后驗(yàn)概率代替客觀概率進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益的計(jì)算。